Coming out of spring training, there are three basic questions – are we going to pitch enough, are we (to use Bobby Cox’s phrase) going to catch enough, and are we going to field enough.

Considering that the Braves got almost nothing out of the fifth spot in the rotation until Kris Medlen’s last start, you’ve got to say that the pitching, both bullpen and rotation, have been very good. Lowe and Vazquez are good and durable, Jurrjens should be (but won’t be) an all-star, and Kawakami, after discovering that a high 90 mph fastball may be a fly-ball out back home but is a meatball in the Great American Ballpark, has looked like a keeper most of the season. The bullpen, except for Buddy Carlyle, is somewhere between good (Bennett) and great (Soriano, O’Flaherty). Could this pitching staff win a World Series? Yes.

Defensively, McCann has improved (especially throwing) and Ross is terrific. The infield is near-Gold Glove, from Kotchman to Chipper to Infante to Escobar to KJ to Prado (I hold KJ in higher regard than some, and I’m right. He’s a good defensive 2B, and there are plenty of metrics to show it). Other than Garret Anderson in LF, and Schafer’s puppy-dog-like pursuit of balls to the wall and beyond (maybe he and Garret should compare notes on how and when to play it off the wall), the OF defense has been solid. Could this defense win a World Series? Yes.

Hitting-wise, the Braves were counting on a lot. IF Kotchman can get back to 2007 (he more or less has), IF KJ and Escobar can continue to develop (they have), IF McCann can continue his – well, excellence – (he has), if Chipper can stay REASONABLY healthy (he has), if Anderson and Diaz can contribute in LF (meh) if Francoeur can bounce back from his epic 2008 fail (Ugh), and if Schafer can hit big league pitching (double ugh). Could this offense win a World Series? No. In fact, it won’t allow the team to make it to the playoffs.

So there, in a nutshell, is the challenge. There needs to be a certain “critical mass” in a lineup and this group doesn’t have it. Schafer just isn’t ready. The top third of the order is adequate but slow, the middle third lacks power and bottom third of the order is a black hole. We need a power/speed guy, maybe a 30/30 type, who can defend in CF and doesn’t cost much and whom we control for a few years.

Nate McLouth, anyone?

Even if you think more of Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke and Gorkys Hernandez than I do, you cannot argue with this deal. Holy schnikees! Frank Wren outdid himself here. This is as sweet – actually builds on, since Gorkys is the centerpiece – as the Detroit deal when Renteria went for Jurrjens and Gorkys. $15m for the next three years and then a reasonable club option for the fourth? For a Gold Glove All-Star 30/30 CF who is a clubhouse presence? Where do I find that deal? And IF I find it without Hanson/Medlen/Heyward/Freeman, don’t I need to take it? Bet your a$$ I do.

I understand that Ivan DeJesus-for-Ryne Sandberg happens every once in a while if you’re using your farm system to strengthen the major league club. I do. But prospects are not sure things. For every Adam Wainwright, there are five Terrell Wades, Odalis Perezes, Tim Spooneybargers, Horacio Ramirezes, and Bruce Chens. Even the Teixeira deal, which is the touchstone for the “NOT THE PROSPECTS!” crowd (a Schuerholz deal, not a Wren deal, by the way) isn’t as horrible as some remember – Saltalamacchia’s OBP in Texas is .299 and Matt Harrison’s ERA is 5.43.

So maybe Jeff Locke, whose ERA is 5.44 in single-A, harnesses his talent. Maybe Charlie Morton overcomes his Stuart Smalley problem and starts to believe he can get big league hitters out. Maybe Gorkys Hernandez eventually hits more than five dingers a year and pushes his SLG above .400. But maybe not.

Me, I’ll take Nate McLouth. Won’t even think twice about it. That skill set, that salary, age 27, proven it for a couple years now, FAcy four years away? For three maybes (not even our best maybes)? I will take that deal, I will take that deal, I will take that deal. No wonder Pirate fans are beyond aggravated. I heard Buck Showalter taking the Pirates’ management’s side of the deal last night on Baseball Tonight. Buck may have convinced somebody, but he sure didn’t convince me.

This was a steal. Now the question is – can this offense win a World Series? And the answer is – “maybe, especially if the pitching’s good and Francoeur and Anderson come around a little bit more.” And that’s a better place than where the Braves were yesterday.

OK, I don’t mean to be so blunt, but I’ve been reading the usual sources, and, I’m sorry, I’m unmoved.

The only reason to sign Tom Glavine is because you think he’s going to be one of your top five guys at getting guys out. You don’t sign him for old time’s sake, you don’t sign him because you think he might develop…you make a business and baseball decision. And the Braves did. They made two, actually.

The first was when his rehab from elbow and shoulder surgery was coming along nicely but there was still risk involved that he wouldn’t be ready (recall that in February, Glavine proclaimed repeatedly that he thought he’d be ready to go on opening day) and the Braves and Glavine worked it out to where they shared the risk and made the deal.

Then came the “cranky” shoulder in spring training, and his debut was pushed to April 18. Then the setback on April 13 pushed that to, it turned out, early June. And the fact that the gun never showed more than the low 80s (Frank Wren says reports of 86 were “inaccurate”).

Meanwhile, Tommy Hanson, the Tommy that Tommy was supposed to be a bridge to, was showing his readiness for the rotation with 90 strikeouts in 66 innings and a 1.79 ERA at Gwinnett (AAA).

Taking emotion out of it, the Braves made a second decision – a cold, hard, solid baseball and business decision. The money they’re not paying Glavine allows them to pay Nate McLouth (Nate McLouth? Are you kidding me?). The young Turk coming up from Gwinnett looks, to anyone with an objective eye, like the better solution to the fifth starter job that Glavine didn’t fill.

And Tommy should understand business decisions – he made one himself a few years back when he decided to join the New York Mets for a few more shekels, leaving his family in Alpharetta and his fanbase (well, some of them, anyway) understanding but not really liking his decision.

Maybe Tommy gets a job, maybe with the Phillies or Mets – both of whom could use an effective starter right about now – and maybe he goes 7-2, 3.33 down the stretch, contributing to a pennant and shoving it right straight up the Braves’ a$$. But I don’t think so.

And hopefully, once the hurt is gone, Glavine and Wren make up, the Braves hold a Glavine Day, retire his jersey, include him in the organization as a spring training pitching instructor or something – maybe even assistant GM, he’s a damn smart guy, after all – and he and Maddux go into the Hall together as Braves. And I think that’d be great.

As for the present, there was a decision to be made and Frank Wren made it.

Jordan Schafer (Logan Schafer to Jon Miller) is handling his transition from AA ball about as well as could be hoped. Good defense, speed to burn, good instincts, and how about the bat? As I write this, he’s hitting .421 with a .500 OBP, an .842 SLG, 2 dingers, 3 walks and 4 Ks in 19 ABs. Small sample size, to be sure, other teams haven’t built a book on him, but…wow.

At some point, of course, Bobby will move him up in the order. Hitting him eighth is kind of wasteful, letting him stand on first or second while the pitcher hits. I know Chipper has a strong preference for hitting third, but the way this club is configured, I think the lineup ought to be something like this:

CF – Schafer

SS – Escobar

2B – KJohnson

3B – CJones

C  – McCann

LF – Anderson/Diaz

RF – Francoeur

1B – Kotchman

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I understand where Bobby’s coming from – a lot of pressure on a 22-year-old who was playing in Pearl last year, don’t want to put too much on him (nor make him the linchpin of the team) so early in his career. And, of course, Bobby’s right. But if June rolls around and Schafer’s hitting .300/.400/.500, how do you continue to hit him eighth? I might even consider him in the 3-hole, though I think I prefer Kelly there.

In any event, Chipper said in spring training that he was working on his power stroke “because that’s what this team needs from me”. He’s right. Better this should be one of his .310/38/110 seasons than a .364/22/75 year. Also, Chipper’s suggested lineup in spring training had Anderson hitting third and himself fourth. If he’s thinking that way, it seems the time is almost ripe for the grizzled veteran to move down and put another high OBP guy above him in the order (not Anderson, who has never walked and now hits .280 instead of .310).

Now, Schafer could go dry and hit .240 the rest of the way, in which case you leave it the way it is. But having watched all the games – including taking the family to the opening-night monsoon at Turner (where I purchased four seats in Section 206 from a Young Urban Entrepreneur) – I don’t think so. I think he has sufficient confidence, plate discipline and a complete approach to hitting that will serve him well over the long run. My only concern, in fact, is that he might hurt himself in the field or on the basepaths with his full-throttle style.

There have been a lot of things to like about this Braves team in this first week – McCann looks like he’s ready to be the next Johnny Bench (those Mauer/McCann comparisons look kind of silly to me), KJ is just raking, the infield defense is tight, Francoeur’s new approach shows promise (.200 average notwithstanding), Moylan got his sink back, Kawakawi had a nice debut (his fastball’s fine – that belt-high stuff is what he needs to eliminate), Lowe is money, Jurrjens continues to look like an excellent young pitcher, Escobar has been fantastic in the field and with the bat – but to me, Jordan Schafer is the biggest thing that’s happening with this club.

How long before the national media talking heads, almost none of whom seem to do their homework, climb on the bandwagon? How do you look at the health of Hamels and Santana, the infield defense of the Marlins, the acquisitions the Braves have made, and pick the Braves fourth in the division? My theory is that they put great weight on last year’s results and don’t think nearly enough about the changes made. Lowe, Vazquez, Kawakami, Jurrjens, Glavine versus (last September) Jurrjens, Reyes, Morton, Campillo, Parr? Schafer versus Blanco? Growth of emerging stars (Escobar, McCann, KJ)? The Braves should have at least been in the conversation in the NL East.

Not impressed with the Phillies rotation past Hamels, who is hurt. Mets are deeper and a better overall club than the Phillies (even allowing for the 5-7 game discount for the NY/ESPN hype factor), but not invincible. Marlins have lots of good young pitching – JJohnson, Nolasco, ASanchez, Volstad – but I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a worse infield defense. Cantu is a butcher, Uggla is a LF playing 2B, Ramirez is a 3B playing SS, Bonifacio is a 2B playing 3B. Ye cats. Defense matters – a lot.

Braves infield: Kotchman has saved several runs already at 1B, Johnson continues to develop – turns a very nice pivot – at 2B, Escobar is a Gold Glove SS and CJones is a tick below Gold Glove at 3B. THAT’s a defense.

Well, we’re 4-1 coming out of the chute, and I’m not surprised. Mildly pleased that things are working out well, but I certainly thought we’d be in the hunt. The hitting will cool a bit, the bullpen will stabilize. I think, on balance, that this is a 90+ win club.

Joe Morgan: “The fact that Brian McCann has to bat cleanup for this club tells you just how little pow-” BAM! 460 feet into the second deck in right field.

Steve Phillips: “Francoeur had a poor season last year. The Braves are hoping-” Smoked 10 rows deep in the left field bleachers in about three seconds flat.

Jon Miller: “I don’t know why Myers is being careful with Schafer. He’s a rookie with little power. He ought to just throw strikes-” KAPOW! 430 feet into the deepest section behind the center field notch.

I thought Escobar’s shot – almost the exact same spot as Schafer’s – was gone, too, though my DVR was inconclusive.

Meanwhile, what about the sublime performance from Derek Lowe? Beating balls into the ground all night. I had my little guy watching the first few innings with me (he’s six) and I was pointing out how the sinker works, how it made the other team hit it on the ground, and we went through at bats where the highest pitch was at the knees. $15m and worth every penny, at least Sunday night. Seems like the kind of guy who should age well, too, in great shape at 36. Moyer still gets ‘em out (hopefully not tonight) at 46 and never had anything like that heavy, heavy sinker Lowe throws.

I called my Yankee buddy today. Said, “hey, I didn’t see how the Yanks did…Sabathia look good?” Couldn’t resist. Now, it’s funny, but when Burnett goes on the DL with shoulder stiffness in about June, and Sabathia is showing the wear of the 72 starts he made for the Brewers last September to will them to the playoffs, Yankee Bill is not going to be amused.

Back to the game. Escobar’s smoothness can’t be overlooked, either. He made all the plays he should and a couple he shouldn’t – great range, Furcal-like arm. Kotchman ranged to his right for a nice get and handled Chipper’s one-hopper, no problem. That was a very good infield defense.

I thought I saw Chipper ouching (oblique?) after he came out of his shoes on a lefthanded swing – second at bat, I believe – but he hung in. I hope his body doesn’t betray him. Just 140 games, Chip, that’s all I’m asking.

Looking forward to seeing Jurrjens tonight. Seems to me if I’m a gambler (I’m not) and I’m looking at the pitching matchups this series, I’m liking the Braves. What does it tell you that once Hamels is out of the mix, Brett Myers is your opening day starter? I did like the Myers quote I saw the other day. I guess he came into camp lighter, like 20 pounds, a writer noticed, asked him about it. Myers says, “I ate salad with my beer. You know, play for the tie.”

Beautiful. How’d we lose 14 of 18 to them last year? We’re better than these guys. Maybe our new rotation has something to do with it.

Hi. Welcome to the TRobb Braves blog for the 2009 season. Glad you’re here. Looking forward to the season. I’ll be with you on braveshomeplate.com keeping you current on happenings, rumors, contracts, trades and news from the Braves.

I’m shooting for an informed fan’s perspective. I think DOB does a great job with ajc.com and Bowman’s pretty good with mlb.com, but there’s certainly room for an informed discussion among fans – and that’s what I’m going to engage and encourage.

If there are “statheads” and “scoutheads”, I’m a ‘tweener – I value some stats (OBP, OPS, RF) but have no desire to live in Statland; but if you value your eyes to the exclusion of the underlying numbers, you can fall in love with a player and miss the fact that he sucks (see Kyle Farnsworth). So let’s plunge ahead, shall we?

Braves Myths

Reading through the tripe written by national media members and misinformed posters and bloggers, I think it’s important that we address some popular Braves myths that have no grounding in reality.

1. 1. Kelly Johnson is lousy defensively. Actually, he’s not. If you try and get to the essence of defensive second base play, you’re looking for a guy with sure hands, who is accurate, who has range and who turns the pivot.Looking at range factor (2^nd in NL in 2008), fielding percentage (8^th) and double plays/9 (2^nd), it’s clear that Kelly has very good range, middle-of-the-pack hands and turns a nice pivot.

   I think this myth is borne of his very visible dropped pop-up that cost the Phillies game last July. That didn’t mean he sucked; it meant he dropped a pop-up.

   One thing he doesn’t do well is range to his right to make the backhand play. Hopefully, he’s been smoothing that rough edge with tutor Glenn Hubbard in the offseason. Remember, last year was KJ’s second year at 2B.

   Remember, too, that Bill James says in order to optimize your offense, you want to play guys at the toughest defensive position they can handle. KJ’s bat at 2B is far more valuable than KJ in LF. So let’s have a little faith and see if he doesn’t develop a bit more this year.
   
   

2. 2. Chipper can’t run. Chipper is fast. Chipper makes me hold my breath as he goes from first to third on a hit to right field, waiting for him to pop a hamstring or tear a quad or roll an ankle, but Chipper moves very well for a 6’4” guy.
   
   
3. 3. This rotation is nothing special. The last five Braves games (last September) were started by Jair Jurrjens, James Parr, Jose Campillo, JoJo Reyes and Charlie Morton (OK, I might have missed a tomato can in there). All but Jurrjens should have been in Richmond (yes, Campillo had a nice four months).This season, in our first five we’ll start Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami, and (probably) Tom Glavine. That’s a huge upgrade. In fact, it’s the main reason why you should just throw 2008 out when evaluating the 2009 Braves. Three of them will pitch 200 innings; all could surpass 180.

   We go from a team that doesn’t know what it’s going to get from its starters four out of five days to a team that has a chance to win every day. Not only does that benefit the ballclub from a pitching standpoint, now the hitters aren’t pressing and the atmosphere isn’t depressing. This team can compete – especially if it gets some help in LF.
   
   

4. 4. Chipper can’t play defense. The guy is money. Good reflexes still, accurate arm, makes the barehand play on a bunt or dribbler as well as anyone. Ever, maybe. He’s not going to first anytime soon because he’s a plus defensive player. Well, that and the fact that the Braves have no decent third basemen on the farm.
   
   
5. 5. The bullpen is a mess. Huh? Mike Gonzalez (“The Cobra”) was lights out, even a few klicks short on the radar gun (14/16 saves, 44 Ks in 33 IP). Soriano’s nerve transposition surgery seems to have taken care of his elbow. Blaine Boyer was great ‘til he ran out of gas (3.78 ERA as late as July 23^rd). Buddy Carlyle was as underrated and unappreciated as any reliever in the league last year (62 IP, 1.24 WHIP, 3.59 ERA and 59 Ks in ’08).And they’ve got about nine guys (Bennett, Campillo, Ridgway, O’Flaherty, Acosta, Marek, Logan, Moylan, Stockman) who could win those last three spots on the staff. Gwinnett could go 100-40 with the pitching they’re going to have this year.
   
   
6. 6. The Braves farm is depleted (In the wake of the five prospects going to Texas in the Teixeira deal). In fact, the farm is robust with a number of nice-looking prospects – Tommy Hanson, Gorkys Hernandez, Jordan Schafer, Cole Rohrbaugh, Kris Medlen, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman. In fact Baseball America has us rated fourth in MLB. Of course, Texas is first, but still…

Those are the myths that bug me the most. How about you?

]]> http://www.braveshomeplate.com/welcome-and-braves-myths/feed/ 2 http://www.braveshomeplate.com/braves-invite-non-roster-players-to-spring-training/ http://www.braveshomeplate.com/braves-invite-non-roster-players-to-spring-training/#comments Thu, 22 Jan 2009 23:33:57 +0000 Cliff http://www.braveshomeplate.com/?p=85 Hey everyone, I just got a quick update today as the Braves have invited some non-roster invitees to spring training. Every once in a while one of these players will make the team out of spring traning but for most of them, this is about as good as it will get.

RHPs Rafael Cruz, Emiliano Fruto, Tommy Hanson and Kris Medlen; LHPs Francisley Bueno, Mariano Gomez and Juan Perez); catchers J.C. Boscan, Phillip Britton, Alvin Colina and Matt Kennelly; INFs Brooks Conrad, Freddie Freeman and Brandon Hicks, and OFs Jason Heyward and Jordan Schafer are the players that have been invited.

Lowe, 35, has a career 126-107 record in 12 seasons with Seattle, Boston and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Braves also announced that they have officialy signed Kenshin Kawakami to a three-year contract worth $24 million. We blogged about this signing a couple of days ago and now that Kawakami passed his physical everything is official.

The Braves are also expected to make a formal offer to free agent Derek Lowe on Monday or Tuesday. Lowe would be a great free agent pickup for the team and will make the starting rotation a lot better.

It will suck to see John Smoltz playing for the Boston Red Sox but general manager Frank Wren just couldn’t take another risk on a verteran pitcher coming off of an injury.

Braves Blog

The terms of the contract haven’t been released, but all signs are pointing to $10 million per year for three years. Yeah, the same terms that the Braves were offering him. Furcal simply chose to stay on the West coast rather then coming back to play for the Braves.

We wish him luck, but his agent sure played the Braves in this deal.

Paul Kinzer who is Furcal’s agent said a deal with the Braves was close but was never signed like it had been reported. Right now, reports are saying that Furcal should be deciding on Wednesday or Thursday.

Keep checking back and we will have an update soon.