OK, we’re the Braves’ decision maker and we’re two months in. We have a pretty good handle on where the strengths and weaknesses of our club lie.
Coming out of spring training, there are three basic questions – are we going to pitch enough, are we (to use Bobby Cox’s phrase) going to catch enough, and are we going to field enough.
Considering that the Braves got almost nothing out of the fifth spot in the rotation until Kris Medlen’s last start, you’ve got to say that the pitching, both bullpen and rotation, have been very good. Lowe and Vazquez are good and durable, Jurrjens should be (but won’t be) an all-star, and Kawakami, after discovering that a high 90 mph fastball may be a fly-ball out back home but is a meatball in the Great American Ballpark, has looked like a keeper most of the season. The bullpen, except for Buddy Carlyle, is somewhere between good (Bennett) and great (Soriano, O’Flaherty). Could this pitching staff win a World Series? Yes.
Defensively, McCann has improved (especially throwing) and Ross is terrific. The infield is near-Gold Glove, from Kotchman to Chipper to Infante to Escobar to KJ to Prado (I hold KJ in higher regard than some, and I’m right. He’s a good defensive 2B, and there are plenty of metrics to show it). Other than Garret Anderson in LF, and Schafer’s puppy-dog-like pursuit of balls to the wall and beyond (maybe he and Garret should compare notes on how and when to play it off the wall), the OF defense has been solid. Could this defense win a World Series? Yes.
Hitting-wise, the Braves were counting on a lot. IF Kotchman can get back to 2007 (he more or less has), IF KJ and Escobar can continue to develop (they have), IF McCann can continue his – well, excellence – (he has), if Chipper can stay REASONABLY healthy (he has), if Anderson and Diaz can contribute in LF (meh) if Francoeur can bounce back from his epic 2008 fail (Ugh), and if Schafer can hit big league pitching (double ugh). Could this offense win a World Series? No. In fact, it won’t allow the team to make it to the playoffs.
So there, in a nutshell, is the challenge. There needs to be a certain “critical mass” in a lineup and this group doesn’t have it. Schafer just isn’t ready. The top third of the order is adequate but slow, the middle third lacks power and bottom third of the order is a black hole. We need a power/speed guy, maybe a 30/30 type, who can defend in CF and doesn’t cost much and whom we control for a few years.
Nate McLouth, anyone?
Even if you think more of Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke and Gorkys Hernandez than I do, you cannot argue with this deal. Holy schnikees! Frank Wren outdid himself here. This is as sweet – actually builds on, since Gorkys is the centerpiece – as the Detroit deal when Renteria went for Jurrjens and Gorkys. $15m for the next three years and then a reasonable club option for the fourth? For a Gold Glove All-Star 30/30 CF who is a clubhouse presence? Where do I find that deal? And IF I find it without Hanson/Medlen/Heyward/Freeman, don’t I need to take it? Bet your a$$ I do.
I understand that Ivan DeJesus-for-Ryne Sandberg happens every once in a while if you’re using your farm system to strengthen the major league club. I do. But prospects are not sure things. For every Adam Wainwright, there are five Terrell Wades, Odalis Perezes, Tim Spooneybargers, Horacio Ramirezes, and Bruce Chens. Even the Teixeira deal, which is the touchstone for the “NOT THE PROSPECTS!” crowd (a Schuerholz deal, not a Wren deal, by the way) isn’t as horrible as some remember – Saltalamacchia’s OBP in Texas is .299 and Matt Harrison’s ERA is 5.43.
So maybe Jeff Locke, whose ERA is 5.44 in single-A, harnesses his talent. Maybe Charlie Morton overcomes his Stuart Smalley problem and starts to believe he can get big league hitters out. Maybe Gorkys Hernandez eventually hits more than five dingers a year and pushes his SLG above .400. But maybe not.
Me, I’ll take Nate McLouth. Won’t even think twice about it. That skill set, that salary, age 27, proven it for a couple years now, FAcy four years away? For three maybes (not even our best maybes)? I will take that deal, I will take that deal, I will take that deal. No wonder Pirate fans are beyond aggravated. I heard Buck Showalter taking the Pirates’ management’s side of the deal last night on Baseball Tonight. Buck may have convinced somebody, but he sure didn’t convince me.
This was a steal. Now the question is – can this offense win a World Series? And the answer is – “maybe, especially if the pitching’s good and Francoeur and Anderson come around a little bit more.” And that’s a better place than where the Braves were yesterday.
