Well, we’re a week in, and while it’s too early to draw definitive conclusions about this Braves team, we’re starting to see what we’ve got.
Jordan Schafer (Logan Schafer to Jon Miller) is handling his transition from AA ball about as well as could be hoped. Good defense, speed to burn, good instincts, and how about the bat? As I write this, he’s hitting .421 with a .500 OBP, an .842 SLG, 2 dingers, 3 walks and 4 Ks in 19 ABs. Small sample size, to be sure, other teams haven’t built a book on him, but…wow.
At some point, of course, Bobby will move him up in the order. Hitting him eighth is kind of wasteful, letting him stand on first or second while the pitcher hits. I know Chipper has a strong preference for hitting third, but the way this club is configured, I think the lineup ought to be something like this:
CF – Schafer
SS – Escobar
2B – KJohnson
3B – CJones
C – McCann
LF – Anderson/Diaz
RF – Francoeur
1B – Kotchman
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I understand where Bobby’s coming from – a lot of pressure on a 22-year-old who was playing in Pearl last year, don’t want to put too much on him (nor make him the linchpin of the team) so early in his career. And, of course, Bobby’s right. But if June rolls around and Schafer’s hitting .300/.400/.500, how do you continue to hit him eighth? I might even consider him in the 3-hole, though I think I prefer Kelly there.
In any event, Chipper said in spring training that he was working on his power stroke “because that’s what this team needs from me”. He’s right. Better this should be one of his .310/38/110 seasons than a .364/22/75 year. Also, Chipper’s suggested lineup in spring training had Anderson hitting third and himself fourth. If he’s thinking that way, it seems the time is almost ripe for the grizzled veteran to move down and put another high OBP guy above him in the order (not Anderson, who has never walked and now hits .280 instead of .310).
Now, Schafer could go dry and hit .240 the rest of the way, in which case you leave it the way it is. But having watched all the games – including taking the family to the opening-night monsoon at Turner (where I purchased four seats in Section 206 from a Young Urban Entrepreneur) – I don’t think so. I think he has sufficient confidence, plate discipline and a complete approach to hitting that will serve him well over the long run. My only concern, in fact, is that he might hurt himself in the field or on the basepaths with his full-throttle style.
There have been a lot of things to like about this Braves team in this first week – McCann looks like he’s ready to be the next Johnny Bench (those Mauer/McCann comparisons look kind of silly to me), KJ is just raking, the infield defense is tight, Francoeur’s new approach shows promise (.200 average notwithstanding), Moylan got his sink back, Kawakawi had a nice debut (his fastball’s fine – that belt-high stuff is what he needs to eliminate), Lowe is money, Jurrjens continues to look like an excellent young pitcher, Escobar has been fantastic in the field and with the bat – but to me, Jordan Schafer is the biggest thing that’s happening with this club.
How long before the national media talking heads, almost none of whom seem to do their homework, climb on the bandwagon? How do you look at the health of Hamels and Santana, the infield defense of the Marlins, the acquisitions the Braves have made, and pick the Braves fourth in the division? My theory is that they put great weight on last year’s results and don’t think nearly enough about the changes made. Lowe, Vazquez, Kawakami, Jurrjens, Glavine versus (last September) Jurrjens, Reyes, Morton, Campillo, Parr? Schafer versus Blanco? Growth of emerging stars (Escobar, McCann, KJ)? The Braves should have at least been in the conversation in the NL East.
Not impressed with the Phillies rotation past Hamels, who is hurt. Mets are deeper and a better overall club than the Phillies (even allowing for the 5-7 game discount for the NY/ESPN hype factor), but not invincible. Marlins have lots of good young pitching – JJohnson, Nolasco, ASanchez, Volstad – but I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a worse infield defense. Cantu is a butcher, Uggla is a LF playing 2B, Ramirez is a 3B playing SS, Bonifacio is a 2B playing 3B. Ye cats. Defense matters – a lot.
Braves infield: Kotchman has saved several runs already at 1B, Johnson continues to develop – turns a very nice pivot – at 2B, Escobar is a Gold Glove SS and CJones is a tick below Gold Glove at 3B. THAT’s a defense.
Well, we’re 4-1 coming out of the chute, and I’m not surprised. Mildly pleased that things are working out well, but I certainly thought we’d be in the hunt. The hitting will cool a bit, the bullpen will stabilize. I think, on balance, that this is a 90+ win club.
